I honestly did not create this blog to rant about a Greek default, but sovereign debt is certainly the theme of the year in financial markets (an excellent call by the Economist at the end of 2009). Anyways, by this point, my internal dialogue has moved past the discussion of whether or not Greece is going to default to over what time horizon I should expected it to happen (I am currently thinking 3-7 years), what the ramifications will be, and where the EU authorities will be forced to step in. Bloomberg ran a story today detailing the opinions of one Mr. Stephen Jen (formerly of the IMF), now a manager at BlueGold Capital. Jen apparently is even more concerned than I am. He says that without an aid package several times the size of the one tabled by the ECB/IMF, Greek default is inevitable, possibly before the end of the year. The article also discusses the esteemed Mr. El Erian's gloomy outlook on the Greek situation.
I also recently came to the realization that I have yet to flesh out all the arguments for why a Greek default is an inevitability. Stay tuned.
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